2018 NFL Weekly Picks Blog Latest

NFL Divisional Playoffs: Analysis and Choices

NFL Divisional Playoffs: Analysis and Choices

Can you rest on Rust?

Each week is a special handicap. One-week-long circumstances might not apply to the following. Nevertheless, there are some widespread features which are unique within the first two weeks of NFL playoffs.

Let's take a look at the four playoffs of last week. All four roadside groups coated the unfold, and three out of 4 gained instantly. All 4 canine had something essential in widespread. All 4 teams had an awesome, more experienced start-up prize. There were a lot more drop-outs during all 4 quarters. Actually, three of the learners of the favorite groups had by no means started the playoffs. None of the 4 had ever gained the playoffs. This was one big factor that I weighed heavily by pulling me into all four underdoggles.

The most important distinction between teams this weekend is – rest. Which teams are at relaxation? All 4 house teams have been out last week. Based mostly on their common periodicals, they are superior teams in each match. So, although final week's hottest groups didn't have as much justification for the points, this week's 4 video games are clearly totally different. Nevertheless, the unfold of factors – 4.5 – Eight – is about the identical because the variety of video games final week, ranging from 2.5 to eight.5. Thus, the numbers haven’t moved considerably even with an enormous step within the resistance class and a lot much less differences within the QB position (observe, nevertheless, that Kansas City Pat Mahomes is beginning the first playoff recreation).

Don't assume that this point could be exaggerated, particularly since Three/Four of the street teams gained final week and need to fly once more. The top factor is probably not as nice as profitable a DAL-LAR recreation the place Dallas had some advantages at house. Nevertheless, groups like INDY and PHILA find it troublesome to journey once more, but licking wounds from recreation fatigue.

So, the key query we have now to ask is – have the oddsmakers been given a enough variety of points for these four superior, well-rested groups? Additionally, might there be a state of affairs or two where oddsmakers are overloaded? Can rest result in rust?

“Rest” is a key idea in evaluating shared drop video games. Weighing this factor might be crucial definition of revenue and coating.

This can have a big influence on my comment and my selection this week.

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SUSTAINABLE LEVEL: $ 14,924. [+ $4,924.]

GENERAL WL RECORDING: 70 wins / 56 losses / 4 pushes

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RESULTS OF THE LAST WEEK: 6 – 1 – 0 (+ $ 2,180 ) [19659003] Teaser: Indianapolis +7.5 / Seattle +Eight.5 – WON $ 1000

Teaser: LA Chargers +8.5 / Philadelphia +12.5 – WON $ 500

First Half: Indianapolis +5 – WON 200

First Aspect: Seattle + .5 – LOST $ 220

First Aspect: LA Chargers +1.5 – WON $ 200

First Half: Philadelphia +3.5 – WON 200

Recreation: Philadelphia + $ 6.5 – $ 300


Indianapolis / Kansas Metropolis ONE 57 – Dangers $ 330 to Win $ 300

This complete quantity was opened to 56 and was shortly invested 57: een (why!?!?!?), And is now taking place. I obtained this quantity last night time 57 (out there throughout Las Vegas). This massive complete is absurd, even at its greatest. NFL drop games are often performed closer to the play invitation. This is not a Sunday night time recreation in early October. It’s a critically essential drop recreation that might be performed in mid-January. Have you checked the climate forecast? Snow and temperatures are expected in the course of the recreation, which does not help to bypass abuse. Neither of those early days has proven the power to play in hostile climate circumstances, especially Chiefs starter Pat Mahones, who has not but performed in a troublesome setting. Andrew Luck performs most of his video games within the dome. So why is that this measurement so excessive, 57? What makes individuals guess on one key number of this quantity – 57 is among the highest key figures in the complete betting? I do not know. Playoff-choker Andy Reid has been a well known conservative coach, and while the younger Mahones provides him rather more choices, I'm unsure that Reid will put strain on the young QB. Add Colts Ascendant Defense in addition to any NFL unit in the mean time, and I don't assume Kansas Metropolis has a similarly explosive production degree up to now. Over the past 11 games (Streak, the place Colts has gone 10-1), Indy hasn't allowed ALL opponents to attain greater than 28 points. Six of those video games, Colts held opponents less than 20 points. Colts has gone 7-Four to the UNDER in this stretch. There isn’t a doubt that the Chiefs has been an offensive powerhouse all yr spherical and has at the very least 27 points in each recreation this season. It's a staggering statistic – what I've never seen before. Later, through the season, Kansas Metropolis made a mean of solely 28 PPGs to compute the typical of its final four residence games. I perceive that it seems like a nasty cause that the Kansas City recreation refers back to the UNDER, but when we improve the downward strain, unfavorable climate circumstances and maybe some jitters (all pressures are more likely to be in Kansas Metropolis here), I feel this complete is just too high. Considered one of these crimes fights – unsure what. However even seemingly high-level video games that run between 34-23, 30-27, 37-20, 38-21, 41-16 and the like give us a job. In final yr's playoffs in Kansas Metropolis, Titans ran to hell from the ball and came out of victory. I don't assume Indy needs to be fired here, so look for a balanced attack on Colts who eats the clock. We now have the freedom of this quantity because it is based mostly on ultimate circumstances. I hope things will get worse and that they’ll trigger destruction for at the very least one crime.


Leans: Indianapolis +5,5

LA Rams -7 – Risking $ 330 to Win $ 300

I belief the Rams workforce has rested, well-coached, Offensive, and it will possibly easily deal with the occasional and perhaps tired Cowboys who’ve been preventing numerous time on this street. Dallas was fortunate sufficient to get out of the Wild Card week at residence profitable (Seattle's play invites have been terrifying). Explosive Rams shouldn’t be almost predictable as Seahawks. This yr, Dallas went only 3-5 occasions on the street. In addition, the much-celebrated Cowboys protection has allowed 25 PPG's final 5 video games, not fairly spectacular. Dallas has to drive the ball efficiently, take management of the ball and eat a variety of the clock to keep Rams offense. I trust that Wade Phillips defender will coordinate his greatest plan to cease Cowboys, a former group he coaches for 4 years. I am also wanting ahead to a modest begin with QB Dak Prescott right here. Though WR A. Cooper has clearly been a prize for the crime, the Prescott passage continues to be inconsistent and doesn’t correspond to what’s wanted in the playoffs. I am apprehensive that I’ll spend money on Rams who haven’t yet gained the game at this degree, not to point out that they have more than just a downhill. Nevertheless, I anticipate that the added rest time and completion time may have a robust impression here. Rams are 7-1 at residence this season and averaged almost 40 PPGs. So this crime is predicted to supply yards and points.

Plays by: LA Rams -7

Leans: Tease LA Rams Right down to -1

New Orleans -Eight – $ 330 Wins $ 300

What’s the Super Bowl Master Eagles a twist that’s more likely to finish here in New Orleans. Keep in mind that Eagles wouldn't even be on this recreation if it wouldn't be unlikely to double your last-second-field aim miss miss in Chicago final week. Philadelphia's crime significantly fought this recreation. Though the victory showed some sharp definition, the circumstances this week are about as totally different as conceivable. New Orleans has been as dominant as the house staff. They destroyed the eagles 48-7 mid-season. Though this is in all probability not a margin, the Saints take pleasure in virtually every attainable advantage. New Orleans leads the ball extra persistently. New Orleans has an awesome overwhelming breach. New Orleans additionally serves higher defense, statistically. It may be argued that Philadelphia is a unique workforce the place the start is QB N. Foles, which provides the entire staff new confidence. I am positive you will agree. Nevertheless, Foles has been statistically very common (7 TDs and 4 INTs because the beginning). This is also Eagles' third consecutive street recreation – by no means an excellent win. They have performed six straight nail clipping video games that went right down to the thread. Eagles has had to face the load of the playoffs each week because the starting of December. It is rather troublesome for the NFL staff to take care of this performance, particularly because the opposing staff represents a robust rise of their class. I’m expecting the Saints to be prepared for this

Repeated: New Orleans -Eight

Leans: Tease New Orleans Right down to -1

San Diego / New England (NWE -Four / Complete 48)

I avoid the chargers-Patriots recreation that seems to be lined and right. We have no idea what to anticipate from New England, who has a pedigree of the dynasty for its profit, but who hasn't really seemed on the previous Patriots this season. New England has been at residence with a credit standing of 8-0 straight up and 6-2 towards penetration. Patriots would definitely be enjoying towards a traditional opponent. Nevertheless, the LA chargers don’t match the second memory. Chargers play better on the street and ship Eight-1 characters, including impressive wins in KC, PITT and BALT. Loaders dominated Ravens last week, who might deliver out a protection that isn’t so good. Though the chargers have played a more durable time, New England has played itself because he has not encountered any opponent in any of the final 9 games within the playoffs. So Patriots' impressive 11-5 season report could be a bit misleading. If I might get chargers plus 6, I might in all probability guess. Less, and it's not play. The line seems to drop now, at +3.5 in some locations. Weather may also be a factor. Temperatures are anticipated in the low 20s. It appears to favor Patriots. Chargers also play a third direct street recreation that’s virtually an automated stop from the staff. An excessive amount of contradictory info on betting

Repeated: None

Leans: No.


Arizona Cardinals Over 5.5 Income -180 – LOST $ 450

Buffalo Payments Over 6 Win – PUSH

Cincinnati Bengals 6 , 5 wins -170 – LOST $ 400

Dallas Cowboys Eight.5 wins +110 – LOST $ 500

Detroit Lions Underneath 7.5 Win – Gained $ 400

Houston Texans Eight.5 Revenue +120 – LOST $ 400

Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 9 wins -145 LOST $ 725

Indianapolis Colts UNDER 6.5 wins +70 – LOST $ 400

New Orleans Saints Over 9.5 wins -145 – WON 500 [19659002] Seattle Seahawks 8 Wins -150 – LOST $ 1,500